PARMS Risk

PARMS Risk uses bottom up models of failure likelihood in combination with cost and consequence models to assess remaining life of critical pipes.

PARMS Risk is a modelling framework supported by extensive analysis scripts, which allows utilities achieve optimum life cycle management of critical pressure pipeline assets via the assessment of remaining economic life.

PARMS Risk is designed to make the best use of available data, and thereby provide insights into available intervention options, including supporting renewal decisions. The modelling supported forms the basis of robust business cases for investment and risk management.

The PARMS Risk approach combines models of structural lifetime and failure consequences with an assessment of potential intervention costs. Condition assessment and other survey work is required to tailor the modelling to the specific pipeline of interest.

Structural lifetime predictions are made via physical probabilistic models (PPMs) that consider the interface between pipe deterioration, structural capacity and imposed internal and external loads. The PPMs use a Monte Carlo modelling framework to estimate the likelihood of pipe structural failure over the analysis period, generally using a range of what if scenarios.

Six material specific PPMs are available covering the majority of the pipe materials including asbestos cement and cast iron.

While predictions of structural lifetime provided valuable information, they do not provide the full picture. This necessitates assessment of remaining economic life. To determine this, the economics and risks associated with different intervention options need to be considered.

To ensure robust decision making all types of costs, whether direct, indirect, and intangible are included in this modelling.

Physical and Economic Remaining Life

Structural Lifetime Prediction

Economic Lifetime Prediction